Alvaro Escribano

Full Professor and Director of the International School at UC3M
Macroeconometrics, Microeconometrics, Financial Econometrics and Industrial Economics
+34 91 624 9854 +34 91 624 9367 Office: 15.2.71 (Getafe) 9.0.50 (Getafe)
alvaroe@eco.uc3m.es
Personal website

Biography

Álvaro Escribano is Director of the Carlos III International School (C3IS) of UC3M, Professor in Applied Economics at UC3M and member of the Board of Governors of the UC3M. Member of “Productivity Board of Spain” the “Advisory Board of AIReF”, “Balia Foundation”, and member of the Board of Directors of the “VIA-Círculo Jefferson Association”. He is Associate Editor of Macroeconomic Dynamics, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, and Cambridge Elements in the Economics of Emerging Markets.

Selected Publications

Enrique Estefania-Salazar, Michael R. Carter, Eva Iglesias and Escribano, A. “The Economic Gains from Breaking Boundaries: Reformulating Index Insurance Zones to Maximize Lower Tail Dependence”. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Development Economics (2026).

Szabolcs Blazsek, Escribano, A. and Erzsébet Kristóf “Score-driven global climate zones from 1940 to 2024: A new objective climate classification method” (2026).

Escribano, A., Juan-Andrés Rodríguez and M.A. Arranz. “Forty Years of Empirical Evidence of Cointegration and Nonlinear Equilibrium Correction in UK Money Demand since the XIXth Century”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2026).

Blazsek, Escribano, A. and A. Licht. “Anthropogenic effects of climate change: Evidence from a fractionally integrated ice-age model.” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2025).

Tomás del Barrio Castro, Escribano, A. , Yeliz Özer, and Philipp Sibbertsen. “Frequency-Specific Coupling in Cenozoic Climate Variability”.

Szabolcs Blazsek, Raven Amina Dupree, and Escribano, A. “Climate persistence, structural change, and heteroscedasticity in CENOGRID: A score-driven fractional”.

Szabolcs Blazsek, Escribano, A., and Adrian Licht. “Fractionally Integrated Multivariate Score-Driven Location Models with an Application to Climate Data” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (SNDE) (2025).

Del Barrio, T. Escribano A., and Ph. Sibbertsen. “Modeling and Forecasting the Long Memory of Cyclical Trends in Paleoclimate Data”. Energy Economics, 147, 108520, 2025.

Blazsek, S., Escribano, A., and E. Kristof “Global, Arctic, and Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Predictions Using Score-Driven Threshold Climate Models”. Energy Economics, 134, 1-18, 2024.

Blazsek, S. and Escribano, A., “Score-driven threshold ice-age models: Benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts”. Energy Economics, 2023.

Blazsek, S. Escribano A., and A. Licht. “Multivariate Markov-switching score-driven models: an application to the global crude oil market”. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2022, Vol. 26, Nº 3, pp. 313-335, ha obtenido el “Premio al Mejor Artículo del año 2022” publicado en Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics, and Econometrics.

Escribano, A. and Wang, D., "Mixed Random Forest, Cointegration, and Forecasting Gasoline Prices". International Journal of Forecasting, V. 37(4), 1442-1462, 2021.

Escribano, A. and Pena, J., “Productivity in Emerging Countries”. Cambridge University Press, 2021.

Escribano, A. and G. Sucarrat “Equation-by-Equation Estimation of Multivariate Periodic Electricity Price Volatility”. Energy Economics, Vol. 74, pages 297-298, (2018).

Antonio García-Romero, Escribano, A., and Josep A. Tribó. “The impact of health research on length of stay in Spanish public hospitals”. Research policy, Vol.46, Issue 3, pages 591-604, (2017).

Blazsek, S. and Escribano, A., “Patent Propensity, R&D and Market Competition: Dynamic Spillovers of Innovation Leaders and Followers”. Journal of Econometrics, V. 191, 145–163, 2016.

Escribano, A. and G. Sucarrat “Automated Model Selection in Finance: General-to-Specific Modeling of the Mean and Volatility Specifications”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 74, Issue 5, pages 716-735, (2012).

Escribano, A., Peña, J.I., and Villaplana, P., ”Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence”.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, V. 73, 622-650, 2011.

Blazsek, S. and Escribano, A., ”Knowledge spillovers in US patents: A dynamic patent intensity model with secret common innovation factors”. Journal of Econometrics, V. 159, 14-32, 2010.

Escribano, A., Fosfuri, A., and Tribó, J., “Managing Knowledge Spillovers: The Impact of Absorptive Capacity on Innovation Performance”. Research Policy, 38 págs., 96-105, 2009.

Escribano, A., “Nonlinear Error Correction: The Case of Money Demand in the UK (1878-2000)”. Macroeconomic Dynamics, V. 8, Issue 1, 76-116, 2004.

Escribano, A. and Granger, C.W.J., “Investigating the Relationship Between Gold and Silver Prices”. Journal of Forecasting, V. 17, 81-107, 1998.

Recent Research

Blazsek S., Escribano A., and Ayala A. “Improved gradient scaling for score-driven filters with an application to stock market volatility”. Working Paper UC3M. (Enviado a publicar), 2025.

Blazsek, S. Escribano, A., and Adrian Licht. “Non-Gaussian score-driven conditionally heteroskedastic models with a macroeconomic application”. Macroeconomics Dynamics (2023).

Blazsek, S. and Escribano, A. "Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models". Econometrics, 2022.

Escribano, A., Peña, D., and Ruiz, E., "30 years of cointegration and dynamic factor models forecasting and its future with big data: Editorial", International Journal of Forecasting, V.37(4), 1333-1337, 2021.

Escribano, A. and Ortega, A. "A Structural Analysis of the Merit-Order Effect in the Spanish Day-Ahead Power Market". Working Paper Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía, 2021.

Martínez-Santos, F., Frías, Z., and Escribano, A. "What drives spectrum prices in multi-band spectrum markets? An empirical analysis of 4G and 5G auctions in Europe" Applied Economics (online 2021).

Blazsek, S., Escribano, A., and Licht, A. "Co-integration with score-driven models: an application to US real GDP growth, US inflation rate, and effective federal funds rate". Macroeconomic Dynamics (2021), 1-212

Blazsek, S., Escribano, A., and Licht, A."Multivariate Markov-switching score-driven models: an application to the global crude oil market". Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (online 2021).

Escribano, A., and Torrado, M. “Nonlinear and asymmetric pricing behaviour in the Spanish gasolina market”. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, V. 22(5), 1-19, 2018.

Escribano, A. and Sucarrat, G. “Estimation of log-GARCH models in the presence of zero returns”. The European Journal of Finance, 2017.