GI Jobs in GE: The macroeconomic effects of defense employment
2026-05-12 12:45 - 14:00 (Europe/Helsinki) | 15.0.05
Ethan Ilzetzki
(LSE)

“GI Jobs in GE: The macroeconomic effects of defense employment”

Face-to-face Seminar 15.2.36 – Room Seminar 15.0.05

Preaching to the Future: Religious Schools, Youth Organizations, and the Rise of Political Islam in Türkiye
2026-05-18 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Janne Tukiainen
(University of Turku)

“Preaching to the Future: Religious Schools, Youth Organizations, and the Rise of Political Islam in Türkiye”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

The War of Attrition under Uncertainty: Theory and Robust Testable Implications » with Jean-Paul Décamps and Fabien Gensbittel
2026-05-19 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Thomas Mariotti
(TSE)

“The War of Attrition under Uncertainty: Theory and Robust Testable Implications » with Jean-Paul Décamps and Fabien Gensbittel”

Face-to-face Seminar 15.2.71 – Room Seminar 15.1.39

Idea Rents and Firm Growth (with Boppart, Laski, and Li)
2026-05-21 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Pete Klenow
(Stanford University)

“Idea Rents and Firm Growth (with Boppart, Laski, and Li)”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Social Learning among Urban Manufacturing Firms: Energy-Efficient Motors in Bangladesh
2026-05-22 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Eric Verhoogen
(Columbia University)

“Social Learning among Urban Manufacturing Firms: Energy-Efficient Motors in Bangladesh”

Face-to-face Seminar 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

4 th Junior Workshop on THE ECONOMICS OF MIGRATION
2026-05-26 - 2026-05-27 | 15.1.01
4th Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration will take place on May 26-27, 2026, hosted by the Department of Economics at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Room 15.1.01
This year’s program features outstanding keynote lectures:

Paola Giuliano (UCLA Anderson School of Management) – Lecture: “Sticky Traditions: Origin, Persistence, and Evolution of Cultural Norms”
Joan Llull (IAE-CSIC and Barcelona School of Economics) – Lecture: “Selective Immigration Policies and the U.S. Labor Market”
Jan Stuhler (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) – Lecture: “Measuring the Impact of Immigration: Estimators for Continuous Dynamic Treatments”

Success, Learning, and Overconfidence in Elimination Contests
2026-05-26 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Luis Santos-Pinto
(University of Lausanne )

“Success, Learning, and Overconfidence in Elimination Contests”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

A Theory of Endogenous Degrowth and Environmental Sustainability
2026-05-28 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Michael Peters
(Yale University)

“A Theory of Endogenous Degrowth and Environmental Sustainability”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

4th Madrid Micro Retreat
2026-06-01 - 2026-06-02
June 1st & 2nd
The 4th Carlos III Micro Retreat is a unique gathering where faculty members from the UC3M Department of Economics, our PhD students, and specially invited international experts spend two days presenting their works-in-progress in a highly collaborative environment.
We meet at UC3M Campus Madrid (Puerto de Toledo), Room 1A.01

The Global Incumbency Advantage
2026-06-01 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Benjamin Marx
(Boston University)

“The Global Incumbency Advantage”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Pure backward induction reasoning in dynamic games
2026-06-03 11:00 - 12:30 | 15.1.39
Andrés Perea
(Maastricht University)

“Pure backward induction reasoning in dynamic games”

Face to Face 15.2.36 – Room 15.1.39

Migration influence on native’s culture in 19th century United States
2026-06-04 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Tommaso D’Amelio
(Université Libre de Bruxelles)

“Migration influence on native’s culture in 19th century United States”

Room 15.1.39

Estimating Causal Effects of Discrete and Continuous Treatments with Binary Instruments
2026-06-08 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Iván Fernández
(Boston University)

“Estimating Causal Effects of Discrete and Continuous Treatments with Binary Instruments”

Face to Face Room 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Testing or selling? Market entry under uncertainty, paper joint with Chantal Marlats (Université de Tours)
2026-06-09 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Lucie Ménager
(Université Paris Panthéon-Assas)

“Testing or selling? Market entry under uncertainty, paper joint with Chantal Marlats (Université de Tours)”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room Seminar 15.1.39

Biased Expectations, Unequal Opportunities: The Role of Teachers in Social Mobility
2026-06-10 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Michela Carlana
(Harvard Kennedy School)

“Biased Expectations, Unequal Opportunities: The Role of Teachers in Social Mobility”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Tensor Portfolios and Tensor Forecast Combinations
2026-06-15 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Tae-Hwy Lee
(University of California Riverside)

“Tensor Portfolios and Tensor Forecast Combinations”

Face to face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Speed, Accuracy, and Complexity
2026-06-16 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Duarte Gonçalves
(University College London)

“Speed, Accuracy, and Complexity”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room Seminar 15.1.39

Aftermarket Deterrence in Essential Input Auctions
2026-06-29 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Sebastian Bauer
(Stanford University)

“Aftermarket Deterrence in Essential Input Auctions”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Networks and Norms (joint with Matteo Marsili, Intentional Center of Theoretical Physics, Trieste)
2026-07-23 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Fernando Vega-Redondo
(Chinese University of Hong Kong)

“Networks and Norms (joint with Matteo Marsili, Intentional Center of Theoretical Physics, Trieste)”
ABSTRACT: The co-evolution of social networks and social norms gives rise to a wide range of dynamic behavior. For, as our model highlights, networks not only support the rise of new norms but also tend to block significant changes in established ones. This is why history often shows that, before prevailing norms can be dislodged, incumbent networks must erode. Over time, therefore, the evolution of norms tends to display long phases of slow change, sporadically punctuated by short periods of fast network adjustment in which new norms arise and then gain a robust foothold. Our theoretical framework, by accommodating different time scales, sheds light of how such a rise and fall of norms and networks unfold.

Room 15.1.39

Realized autoregressive conditional betas by Mariia Artemova, Christian Francq and Sébastien Laurent
2026-09-09 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Christian Francq
(ENSAE)

“Realized autoregressive conditional betas by Mariia Artemova, Christian Francq and Sébastien Laurent”
We propose a new model called RACB (Realized Autoregressive Conditional Beta) to model the dynamics of slope parameters (or betas) in a linear regression model with heteroscedastic errors. The proposed model is a quasi score-driven model obtained by modelling the joint distribution of the endogenous variable and the realized betas, conditional on the explanatory variables and under the assumption that the realized betas are unbiased estimators of the conditional betas.
The proposed model extends the Autoregressive Conditional Beta (ACB) model by conditioning the betas on lagged realized betas and by shrinking the conditional betas towards the realized betas.
We establish the key stochastic properties of the data generating process and the associated filter, and argue that the contraction condition for invertibility is not only sufficient but also almost necessary. We also show that when realized betas are not observed for certain observations, replacing them with the conditional betas is optimal in the Kullback–Leibler divergence sense.
Empirically, for 37 large U.S. stocks in a Fama–French three-factor setting, the RACB model achieves the best performance in a tracking portfolio exercise as it is the most frequently retained model in the Model Confidence Set.
Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Innovation, Business Cycles, and the Climate Transition
2026-09-10 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Maximilian Konradt
(CREI)

“Innovation, Business Cycles, and the Climate Transition”

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between green innovation and the business cycle, revealing that while non-green innovation is procyclical, green innovation is countercyclical. This pattern holds unconditionally over the business cycle and conditional on economic shocks. Motivated by these findings, we develop a business cycle model with endogenous green and non-green innovation to explain their distinct cyclical behavior. The key mechanism operates through a `green is in the future’ channel: green patents are expected to generate higher profits in the future, making green patenting less sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations. In general equilibrium, this channel is reinforced, making green and non-green innovation effective substitutes. We provide direct evidence supporting the model mechanism using data on market-implied values of green and non-green patents.

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-09-15 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Mikael Mäkimattila
(Aalto University)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

The Transition to Parenthood: The Effects of Fertility on Religious and Cultural Values (with Raphael Corbi and Natália Trigo)
2026-09-16 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Francisco Costa
(FGV)

“The Transition to Parenthood: The Effects of Fertility on Religious and Cultural Values (with Raphael Corbi and Natália Trigo)”
This paper shows that the transition to parenthood shapes adults’ religious and social values. Using panel and pseudo-panel event-study designs for the United States and Europe, we document a persistent increase in religious engagement and traditionalist values following the birth of a first child. This shift is not merely a change in social participation (belonging) but also extends to private beliefs and identity (believing), suggesting an elasticity in deep-preference parameters that challenges the canonical assumption of adult preference stability. To assess the magnitude of these effects, we ask how much of the observed decline in religious engagement can be attributed to falling fertility. A counterfactual decomposition indicates that the secular decline in fertility accounts for, on average, 12.5 percent of secularization in the West over the past half-century.

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-09-17 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Benny Kleinman
(Stanford University)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Perceptions of Race in the Labor Market joint with Pedro C. Sant’Anna and Aiko Schmeisser
2026-09-21 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Sulin Sardoschau
(Humboldt University)

“Perceptions of Race in the Labor Market joint with Pedro C. Sant’Anna and Aiko Schmeisser“

Face to face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Collusion without Patience
2026-09-22 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Toomas Hinnosaar
(University of Nottingham)

“Collusion without Patience”
Abstract: Tacit collusion is usually linked to repeated interactions between patient firms. We show that it can also arise in a one-shot duopoly. When firms choose capacities and face outsourcing contracts with minimum order quantities, gaps in feasible outputs allow commitment not to sell intermediate quantities. For a range of parameters, there exists a collusive equilibrium in which both firms produce less and earn more than under competition. Three other equilibria can also arise: competitive, leadership, and miscoordination. We then extend the model to general two-sided limited commitment and show that it yields the same set of equilibria.
Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

A Non-Crossing Quantile and Expected Shortfall Regression
2026-09-23 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Timo Dimitriadis
(University Frankfurt)

“A Non-Crossing Quantile and Expected Shortfall Regression”
Abstract:
Recently proposed joint and two-step estimators for Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) regressions often exhibit crossings of the estimated regression functions in finite samples, analogous to the classical quantile crossing problem. We propose an M-estimator for joint VaR and ES regression at multiple probability levels that prevents such crossings by incorporating non-crossing constraints into the optimization problem. We establish that, when crossings arise from finite-sample variability or mild model misspecification, the constrained estimator is asymptotically equivalent to its unconstrained counterpart, a result corroborated by simulation studies. The constraints can be imposed over either a subset or a superset of the covariate space, with the chosen domain acting as a regularization parameter that shrinks the regression functions toward common slopes. We illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method in two applications. First, in recently proposed macroeconomic regressions for Inflation-at-Risk, the non-crossing estimator not only eliminates crossings but also stabilizes parameter estimates and produces smoother predictions. Second, for forecasting VaR and ES of global financial indices using CAViaR-type models, imposing non-crossing constraints improves out-of-sample forecast performance compared to unconstrained CAViaR as well as classical benchmark models.

Face to face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Lost in Transition: Financial Barriers to New Technologies
2026-09-24 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Maarten De Ridder
(LSE)

“Lost in Transition: Financial Barriers to New Technologies”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Deforestation as an Option: Land Grabbing in the Brazilian Amazon
2026-09-28 00:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Rodrigo R. Soares
(INSPER)

“Deforestation as an Option: Land Grabbing in the Brazilian Amazon”
Abstract: Curbing deforestation in the Amazon is essential for climate change mitigation and biodiversity preservation, but the effectiveness of property rights and environmental policies may depend crucially on political factors. We study the impact of changes in enforcement following the 2019 change in government in Brazil. We compare municipalities more and less exposed to new fronts of land appropriation opened up by loggers. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that deforestation accelerated after 2019, with large and significant effects estimated for Undesignated Public Forests, where property rights are poorly enforced, but not for Protected Areas, where land use rules are clearer. In an alternative empirical design that explores within municipality variation across Undesignated Public Forests and Protected Areas, we obtain similar results. Using data on self-declared ownership and cattle raising, we provide evidence that land grabbing for speculatory purposes is likely the key factor behind the increase in deforestation.

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Socially optimal rating design
2026-09-29 12:45 - 14:00 | 15.1.39
Helene Mass
(University of Vienna)

“Socially optimal rating design”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room Seminar 15.1.39
