Speed, Accuracy, and Complexity
2026-06-16 12:45 - 14:00 (Europe/Helsinki) | 15.1.39
Duarte Gonçalves
(University College London)

“Speed, Accuracy, and Complexity”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room Seminar 15.1.39

Aftermarket Deterrence in Essential Input Auctions
2026-06-29 12:45 - 14:00
Sebastian Bauer
(Stanford University)

“Aftermarket Deterrence in Essential Input Auctions”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Networks and Norms (joint with Matteo Marsili, Intentional Center of Theoretical Physics, Trieste)
2026-07-23 00:45 - 14:00
Fernando Vega-Redondo
(Chinese University of Hong Kong)

“Networks and Norms (joint with Matteo Marsili, Intentional Center of Theoretical Physics, Trieste)”
ABSTRACT: The co-evolution of social networks and social norms gives rise to a wide range of dynamic behavior. For, as our model highlights, networks not only support the rise of new norms but also tend to block significant changes in established ones. This is why history often shows that, before prevailing norms can be dislodged, incumbent networks must erode. Over time, therefore, the evolution of norms tends to display long phases of slow change, sporadically punctuated by short periods of fast network adjustment in which new norms arise and then gain a robust foothold. Our theoretical framework, by accommodating different time scales, sheds light of how such a rise and fall of norms and networks unfold.

Room 15.1.39

Realized autoregressive conditional betas by Mariia Artemova, Christian Francq and Sébastien Laurent
2026-09-09 00:45 - 14:00
Christian Francq
(ENSAE)

“Realized autoregressive conditional betas by Mariia Artemova, Christian Francq and Sébastien Laurent”
We propose a new model called RACB (Realized Autoregressive Conditional Beta) to model the dynamics of slope parameters (or betas) in a linear regression model with heteroscedastic errors. The proposed model is a quasi score-driven model obtained by modelling the joint distribution of the endogenous variable and the realized betas, conditional on the explanatory variables and under the assumption that the realized betas are unbiased estimators of the conditional betas.
The proposed model extends the Autoregressive Conditional Beta (ACB) model by conditioning the betas on lagged realized betas and by shrinking the conditional betas towards the realized betas.
We establish the key stochastic properties of the data generating process and the associated filter, and argue that the contraction condition for invertibility is not only sufficient but also almost necessary. We also show that when realized betas are not observed for certain observations, replacing them with the conditional betas is optimal in the Kullback–Leibler divergence sense.
Empirically, for 37 large U.S. stocks in a Fama–French three-factor setting, the RACB model achieves the best performance in a tracking portfolio exercise as it is the most frequently retained model in the Model Confidence Set.
Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Innovation, Business Cycles, and the Climate Transition
2026-09-10 12:45 - 14:00
Maximilian Konradt
(CREI)

“Innovation, Business Cycles, and the Climate Transition”

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between green innovation and the business cycle, revealing that while non-green innovation is procyclical, green innovation is countercyclical. This pattern holds unconditionally over the business cycle and conditional on economic shocks. Motivated by these findings, we develop a business cycle model with endogenous green and non-green innovation to explain their distinct cyclical behavior. The key mechanism operates through a `green is in the future’ channel: green patents are expected to generate higher profits in the future, making green patenting less sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations. In general equilibrium, this channel is reinforced, making green and non-green innovation effective substitutes. We provide direct evidence supporting the model mechanism using data on market-implied values of green and non-green patents.

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-09-15 12:45 - 14:00
Mikael Mäkimattila
(Aalto University)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

The Transition to Parenthood: The Effects of Fertility on Religious and Cultural Values (with Raphael Corbi and Natália Trigo)
2026-09-16 00:45 - 14:00
Francisco Costa
(FGV)

“The Transition to Parenthood: The Effects of Fertility on Religious and Cultural Values (with Raphael Corbi and Natália Trigo)”
This paper shows that the transition to parenthood shapes adults’ religious and social values. Using panel and pseudo-panel event-study designs for the United States and Europe, we document a persistent increase in religious engagement and traditionalist values following the birth of a first child. This shift is not merely a change in social participation (belonging) but also extends to private beliefs and identity (believing), suggesting an elasticity in deep-preference parameters that challenges the canonical assumption of adult preference stability. To assess the magnitude of these effects, we ask how much of the observed decline in religious engagement can be attributed to falling fertility. A counterfactual decomposition indicates that the secular decline in fertility accounts for, on average, 12.5 percent of secularization in the West over the past half-century.

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-09-17 12:45 - 14:00
Benny Kleinman
(Stanford University)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Perceptions of Race in the Labor Market joint with Pedro C. Sant’Anna and Aiko Schmeisser
2026-09-21 00:45 - 14:00
Sulin Sardoschau
(Humboldt University)

“Perceptions of Race in the Labor Market joint with Pedro C. Sant’Anna and Aiko Schmeisser“

Face to face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Collusion without Patience
2026-09-22 12:45 - 14:00
Toomas Hinnosaar
(University of Nottingham)

“Collusion without Patience”
Abstract: Tacit collusion is usually linked to repeated interactions between patient firms. We show that it can also arise in a one-shot duopoly. When firms choose capacities and face outsourcing contracts with minimum order quantities, gaps in feasible outputs allow commitment not to sell intermediate quantities. For a range of parameters, there exists a collusive equilibrium in which both firms produce less and earn more than under competition. Three other equilibria can also arise: competitive, leadership, and miscoordination. We then extend the model to general two-sided limited commitment and show that it yields the same set of equilibria.
Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

A Non-Crossing Quantile and Expected Shortfall Regression
2026-09-23 00:45 - 14:00
Timo Dimitriadis
(University Frankfurt)

“A Non-Crossing Quantile and Expected Shortfall Regression”
Abstract:
Recently proposed joint and two-step estimators for Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) regressions often exhibit crossings of the estimated regression functions in finite samples, analogous to the classical quantile crossing problem. We propose an M-estimator for joint VaR and ES regression at multiple probability levels that prevents such crossings by incorporating non-crossing constraints into the optimization problem. We establish that, when crossings arise from finite-sample variability or mild model misspecification, the constrained estimator is asymptotically equivalent to its unconstrained counterpart, a result corroborated by simulation studies. The constraints can be imposed over either a subset or a superset of the covariate space, with the chosen domain acting as a regularization parameter that shrinks the regression functions toward common slopes. We illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method in two applications. First, in recently proposed macroeconomic regressions for Inflation-at-Risk, the non-crossing estimator not only eliminates crossings but also stabilizes parameter estimates and produces smoother predictions. Second, for forecasting VaR and ES of global financial indices using CAViaR-type models, imposing non-crossing constraints improves out-of-sample forecast performance compared to unconstrained CAViaR as well as classical benchmark models.

Face to face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Lost in Transition: Financial Barriers to New Technologies
2026-09-24 12:45 - 14:00
Maarten De Ridder
(LSE)

“Lost in Transition: Financial Barriers to New Technologies”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Deforestation as an Option: Land Grabbing in the Brazilian Amazon
2026-09-28 00:45 - 14:00
Rodrigo R. Soares
(INSPER)

“Deforestation as an Option: Land Grabbing in the Brazilian Amazon”
Abstract: Curbing deforestation in the Amazon is essential for climate change mitigation and biodiversity preservation, but the effectiveness of property rights and environmental policies may depend crucially on political factors. We study the impact of changes in enforcement following the 2019 change in government in Brazil. We compare municipalities more and less exposed to new fronts of land appropriation opened up by loggers. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that deforestation accelerated after 2019, with large and significant effects estimated for Undesignated Public Forests, where property rights are poorly enforced, but not for Protected Areas, where land use rules are clearer. In an alternative empirical design that explores within municipality variation across Undesignated Public Forests and Protected Areas, we obtain similar results. Using data on self-declared ownership and cattle raising, we provide evidence that land grabbing for speculatory purposes is likely the key factor behind the increase in deforestation.

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Socially optimal rating design
2026-09-29 12:45 - 14:00
Helene Mass
(University of Vienna)

“Socially optimal rating design”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room Seminar 15.1.39

Tail Index Regression for Extremal Dependence" (joint work with Paulo M. M. Rodrigues from Banco de Portugal and NOVA School of Business and Economics)
2026-09-30 12:45 - 14:00
Yannick Hoga
(Universität Duisburg-Essen)

“Tail Index Regression for Extremal Dependence” (joint work with Paulo M. M. Rodrigues from Banco de Portugal and NOVA School of Business and Economics)”

Face to Face Room 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-10-01 12:45 - 14:00
Julian Neira
(University of Exeter)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-10-07 00:45 - 14:00
Sofía Velasco
(Banco de España)

“TBA”

Face to face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-10-15 12:45 - 14:00
Manuel García Santana
(CREI)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-10-19 00:45 - 14:00
Leopoldo Fergusson
(Universidad de los Andes)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

On the Inefficiency of Social Learning
2026-10-20 00:45 - 14:00
Florian Brandl
(University of Bonn)

“On the Inefficiency of Social Learning“
Abstract: We study whether a social planner can restore efficient learning a finite expected number of incorrect actions in the canonical sequential social learning model. Agents act in order, each choosing one of two actions based on a private signal and the social information they observe. The planner controls the social information disclosed to each agent and offers transfers contingent on the agent’s action. We show that whenever learning is inefficient without intervention, no combination of disclosure and transfers restores efficient learning at finite cost: the planner must offer subsidies approaching the full value of a correct decision to infinitely many agents, so the expected total offered transfer is infinite. In particular, no disclosure policy alone restores efficiency. Offered transfers, however, differ from realized payments: since a transfer is paid only when the agent takes the subsidized action, the planner can achieve efficient learning while keeping the expected total realized payment arbitrarily small.

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

Zoning: Misallocation or Externalities?
2026-10-22 12:45 - 14:00
Chang-Tai Hsieh
(University of Chicago)

“Zoning: Misallocation or Externalities?”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

From Correction to Connection: Relational Approaches to Countering Misinformation (with Cesi Cruz)
2026-10-26 00:45 - 14:00
Julien Labonne
(University of Oxford)

“From Correction to Connection: Relational Approaches to Countering Misinformation (with Cesi Cruz)”
Abstract: As social media becomes an important source of political information in many democracies, citizens are increasingly exposed to misleading content that distorts public discourse and weakens trust in institutions. While most current initiatives assume that misinformation persists because citizens lack the skills, motivation, or attention needed to evaluate information accurately, we argue that it is a feature of relational information environments. This reframing motivates a different approach: using in-person workshops to bring communities together to reflect collectively on how information circulates, is shared, and shapes public life. Using media literacy as a vehicle for discussion, these sessions encouraged participants to navigate disagreement and develop shared norms around information integrity. We present findings from a randomized controlled trial in 160 villages across the Philippines, a country often cited as an early case of social media-driven democratic backsliding. Treated individuals perceived less political polarization and reported greater interest in politics. They relied less on Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok for political news and engaged more frequently in offline discussion through civic and religious networks. Comparable effects among untreated peers indicate meaningful community-level spillovers. Effects also extended to electoral outcomes: using official electoral results, we find that, in treatment villages, candidates who relied heavily on Facebook advertising underperformed and voters were less responsive to false online rumors about local candidates. In-person, community-based interventions can change how people engage with political information, strengthening both informational integrity and democratic accountability.

Face to face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-10-27 12:45 - 14:00
Martin Vaeth
(Paris School of Economics)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room Seminar 15.1.39

TBA
2026-10-28 00:45 - 14:00
Daniel Gutknecht
(Goethe-Universität Frankfurt)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39

TBA
2026-10-29 12:45 - 14:00
Kristina Manysheva
(Yale University)

“TBA”

Face to Face 15.2.71 – Room 15.1.39
