Department of Economics Universidad Carlos III

Detecting deviations from stationarity of functional time series
2019-06-03 12:45 - 14:00 (Europe/Helsinki)
Alexander Aue.
(UC Davis).

Detecting deviations from stationarity of functional time series.
Abstract:

The advent of complex data has led to increased research in virtually all areas of statistics, including functional data analysis (FDA). Within the purview of FDA, the use of methods for serially correlated functions is often prudent. As for simpler univariate time series models, the theoretical foundations of methodology are often laid exploiting the notion of stationarity, while data analysis is often conducted on data violating this assumption. This talks looks into ways of discovering departures from stationarity in two ways. In the first part, structural breaks are considered, such that the sample is split into segments in a non-smooth fashion. The methodology to be presented does not rely on the usual dimension reduction techniques, which might be advantageous if the structural break is not sparse (that is, not concentrated within the primary modes of variation of the data). In the second part, local stationarity is introduced as a smooth deviation from stationarity. Here methods in the frequency domain are considered, based on the general result that (second-order) stationarity is equivalent to a functional version of the peridogram being uncorrelated at the Fourier frequencies. Both sets of methods are illustrated with annual Australian temperature profiles. The talk is based on joint work with Anne van Delft (Bochum), Greg Rice (Waterloo) and Ozan Sönmez (Davis).

Attendance confirmation.

The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data
2019-05-31 12:45 - 14:00
Andrés Rodríguez-Clare.
(University of California, Berkeley).

The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data.

Attendance confirmation.

Auctions with unknown capacities: understanding competition among renewables
2019-05-29 12:45 - 14:00
Natalia Fabra.
(UC3M).

Auctions with unknown capacities: understanding competition among renewables.

Attendance confirmation.

Intellectual Property, Tariffs, and International Trade Dynamics
2019-05-28 12:45 - 14:00
Federico Mandelman.
(Atlanta FED).

Intellectual Property, Tariffs, and International Trade Dynamics.

Attendance confirmation.

Supply Function Competition and Exporters: Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Productivity Distributions and Marginal Costs
2019-05-27 12:45 - 14:00
Ayşe Özgür Pehlivan.
(Bilkent University).

Supply Function Competition and Exporters: Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Productivity Distributions and Marginal Costs.

Attendance confirmation.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings
2019-05-23 12:45 - 14:00
Maximiliano Dvorkin.
( Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

Sovereign Debt Restructurings.

Attendance confirmation.

On the family origins of human capital: Evidence from donor-conceived children
2019-05-22 12:45 - 14:00
Erik Plug.
(University of Amsterdam).

On the family origins of human capital: Evidence from donor-conceived children.

Attendance confirmation.

Inference based on Kotlarski’s Identity
2019-05-21 12:45 - 14:00
Yuya Sasaki.
(Vanderbilt University).

Inference based on Kotlarski’s Identity.

Attendance confirmation.

Pledge-and-Review Bargaining
2019-05-20 12:45 - 14:00
Bård Harstad.
(University of Oslo).

Pledge-and-Review Bargaining.

Attendance confirmation.

Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises
2019-05-17 12:45 - 14:00
Carlo Galli.
(UCL).

Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises.
Abstract:
We study the information sensitivity of government debt denominated in domestic vs. foreign currency: the former is subject to inflation risk and the latter to default. Default only affects sophisticated bond traders, whereas inflation concerns a larger and less informed group. Within a two-period Bayesian trading game, differential information manifests itself in the secondary market, and we display conditions under which debt prices are more resilient to bad news even in the primary market, where only sophisticated players operate. Our results can explain debt prices across countries following the 2008 financial crisis, and also provide a theory of “original sin.”

The Aggregate Consequence of Tax Evasion
2019-05-16 12:45 - 14:00
Almuth Scholl.
(University of Konstanz).

The Aggregate Consequence of Tac Evasion.

Attendance confirmation.

Child Custody Agreements in the Shadow of Law
2019-05-14 12:45 - 14:00
Gorkem Celik.
(ESSEC).

Child Custody Agreements in the Shadow of Law.

Attendance confirmation.

Nonparametric maximum likelihood methods for binary response models with random coefficients
2019-05-13 12:45 - 14:00
Roger Koenker.
(UCL).

Nonparametric maximum likelihood methods for binary response models with random coefficients.

Attendance confirmation.

Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models.
2019-05-09 12:45 - 14:00
Fabio Canova.
(Norwegian Business School).

Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models.

Attendance confirmation.

Policy responsiveness versus stability: the role of institutions
2019-05-08 12:45 - 14:00
Antoine Loeper.
(UC3M).

Policy responsiveness versus stability: the role of institutions.

Attendance confirmation.

A Rationale for Unanimity in Committees
2019-05-07 12:45 - 14:00
Justin Valasek.
(Norwegian School of Economics).

A Rationale for Unanimity in Committees.

Attendance confirmation.

Persistent Political Engagement: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Protest Movements
2019-05-06 12:45 - 14:00
Noam Yuchtman.
(LSE).

Persistent Political Engagement: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Protest Movements.

Attendance confirmation.

Strategic Voting in Two Party Legislative Elections
2019-04-30 12:45 - 14:00
Niall Hughes.
(King’s College London).

Strategic Voting in Two Party Legislative Elections.

Attendance confirmation.

Projection-based uniformity tests for hyperspherical data
2019-04-29 12:45 - 14:00
Eduardo Portugués.
(UC3M).

Projection-based uniformity tests for hyperspherical data.

Attendance confirmation.

Structural transformation and trade in Spain since 1850
2019-04-25 16:00 - 17:00
Juan Carlos Conesa.
(Stony Brook University).

Structural transformation and trade in Spain since 1850.

Attendance cofirmation.

Consumer Credit with Over-Optimistic Borrowers
2019-04-25 12:45 - 14:00
Florian Exler.
(University of Vienna).

Consumer Credit with Over-Optimistic Borrowers.

Attendance confirmation.

Cooperation and Retaliation in Legislative Bargaining
2019-04-24 12:45 - 14:00
Agustin Casas.
(CUNEF).

Cooperation and Retaliation in Legislative Bargaining.

Attendance confirmation.

Mergers and Innovation Portfolios
2019-04-23 12:45 - 14:00
José Luis Moraga.
(VU Amsterdam).

Mergers and Innovation Portfolios.

Attendance confirmation.

Optimal Monetary Policy in HANK Economies
2019-04-11 12:45 - 14:00
Edouard Challe.
(Ecole Polytechnique).

Optimal Monetary Policy in HANK Economies.

Attendance confirmation.

Data and Data Access at the Research Data Center of the IAB
2019-04-11 11:00 - 12:15
Dana Müller.
(IAB).

Data and Data Access at the Research Data Center of the IAB.

Attendance confirmation.

Fostering Collaboration
2019-04-10 12:45 - 14:00
Aditya Kuvalekar.
(UC3M).

Fostering Collaboration.

Attendance confirmation.

Costly Voting: A Large-Scale Real Effort Experiment
2019-04-09 12:45 - 14:00
Carlos Pimienta
(UNSW).

Costly Voting: A Large-Scale Real Effort Experiment.

Attendance confirmation.

Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory
2019-04-04 12:45 - 14:00
Gernot Müller.
(University of Tübingen).

Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory.

Attendance Confirmation.

Understanding Physician Decisioin Making: The Case of Depression
2019-04-03 12:45 - 14:00
Janet Currie.
(Princeton University).

Understanding Physician Decision Making: The Case of Depression.

Attendance Confirmation.

Reputation and Information Design
2019-04-02 11:15 - 12:30
Ennio Stachetti.
(New York University).

Reputation and Information Design.
